The Algorithm
The Local Sales Pricing Model takes the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period when a house was purchased.
And then compares that with the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales for the last 4 weeks for where we have completed sales figures.
The percentage difference in average prices is then applied to the original purchase price of the property to generate a current estimated price.
The Calculations
Purchase Date 27 Apr 2017
Geometric average (or mean) price of the nearest 50 properties sold within 4 weeks of this property.
The geometric average is used to reduce the impact of outliers in the sales price data.
£1,780,264
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in the same time period 1865
Latest Purchase Price Data Date 28 May 2020
Geometric average price of the nearest 50 properties sold between 30 Apr 2020 and 28 May 2020 £450,000
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in this time period 6576
Difference in meters between the search areas to find 50 sales.
This calculation should help you decide if the model is providing a useful estimate. If the differences in search areas is large, then the model is less likely to be giving a useful estimate.
4711
Percentage difference in the average house prices. -74.723 %
Loss in house value £-13,823,727
Estimated house price.
Remember this is just a model using changes in average house prices in the local area. For an accurate valuation always consult a professional valuer, or estate agent.
£4,676,272
The Pros and Cons

Based on actual sales data

The model is based upon actual completed sales figures.
Other models, for example the Halifax House Price Index are based on approved mortgage applications rather than completed sales.
Although mortgage approvals give a more timely index, not every approval leads to a completed sale.
Additionally within some districts many properties are purchased mortgage free by foreign nationals, this skews the Halifax and Nationwide House Price Indexes.

Model lags current market

The model's estimates lag behind the current market because it is based upon completed sales.
A typical house transaction takes around 8 weeks to complete, this creates a lag from the date the price is agreed to the date the transaction is recorded.
Therefore, on a rising market this model will underestimate the house price and on a falling market this model will overestimate the price.

Model doesn't adjust for home improvements

This is an algorithmic model which is based purely on changes to average house prices in the immediate area.
The model doesn't factor in any improvements made to the specific property.
This aspect of the model is not as bigger weakness as expected.
On average most homes get brought, get extended and improved, and then get sold in a seven year period.
Therefor the sample which we draw the averages from also contains houses which have had home improvements.
We always recommend that you use a professional valuer, or estate agent to get an accurate valuation.

Averages are not always comparable

The model finds the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period to determine the average prices.
If the search area for the 50 nearest sales is very different for the two averages then the mix of types of houses used for the calculations is likely to be different.
So if the search area is very different then the model is not likely to give a useful estimate.

Ignores postcode boundaries

Postcode snobbery often impacts house prices in the UK.
Prices in one postcode can appreciate while houses in the next postcode stagnate.
This model doesn't consider the postcode when selecting the sample used to generate the average prices.
This can be viewed as both a positive and negative aspect of this model.
Sales used to determine the average price when the house was purchased on 27 Apr 2017
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
0 27 Apr 2017 ONE HYDE PARK, 100 APARTMENT D.05.2 KNIGHTSBRIDGE £18,500,000
109 26 Apr 2017 PARK MANSIONS 86 KNIGHTSBRIDGE £383,500
118 20 Apr 2017 COURT HOUSE FLAT 1 BASIL STREET £1,310,000
146 8 May 2017 ALBERT GATE COURT, 124 FLAT 4 KNIGHTSBRIDGE £4,600,000
215 3 May 2017 KNIGHTSBRIDGE COURT FLAT 17 SLOANE STREET £3,600,000
272 25 Apr 2017 JEFFERSON HOUSE, 11 FLAT 25 BASIL STREET £260,000
331 5 May 2017 THORBURN HOUSE FLAT 4 KINNERTON STREET £1,702,500
405 28 Apr 2017 27 TREVOR PLACE £5,600,000
442 4 May 2017 50 FLAT 61 SLOANE STREET £2,500,000
451 8 May 2017 2 BELGRAVE MEWS NORTH £3,950,000
475 4 May 2017 14 FLAT 5 MONTPELIER STREET £13,500,000
506 28 Apr 2017 ERESBY HOUSE FLAT 23 RUTLAND GATE £1,715,000
506 11 May 2017 ERESBY HOUSE FLAT 2 RUTLAND GATE £1,250,000
560 26 Apr 2017 WISLEY COURT, 37 FLAT 4 BEAUFORT GARDENS £1,200,000
674 4 May 2017 7 - 9 FLAT D CADOGAN SQUARE £3,230,000
694 4 May 2017 43 FLAT 1 OVINGTON SQUARE £1,320,000
719 28 Apr 2017 CHALFONT HOUSE, 37 - 49 FLAT 21 CADOGAN LANE £5,500,000
719 28 Apr 2017 CHALFONT HOUSE, 37 - 49 FLAT 21 CADOGAN LANE £5,500,000
738 8 May 2017 23 FLAT E LENNOX GARDENS £3,440,000
789 18 Apr 2017 69 BASEMENT & GROUND FLOOR FLAT EATON PLACE £2,900,000
801 19 Apr 2017 48 PARK LANE £340,000
831 28 Apr 2017 1B ENNISMORE GARDENS MEWS £810,000
838 21 Apr 2017 59 - 60 FLAT 4 CADOGAN PLACE £10,900,000
855 5 May 2017 FOUNTAIN HOUSE FLAT 18 PARK STREET £1,750,000
868 18 Apr 2017 93 FLAT 2 EATON PLACE £3,150,000
882 21 Apr 2017 18 CLABON MEWS £5,600,000
888 20 Apr 2017 APARTMENT 7, 77 SOUTH AUDLEY STREET £25,600,000
989 20 Apr 2017 67 - 68 FLAT B EATON SQUARE £6,300,000
1017 8 May 2017 20 ALEXANDER PLACE £4,650,000
1018 26 Apr 2017 EATON HOUSE, 39 - 40 FLAT 64 UPPER GROSVENOR STREET £1,200,000
1056 13 Apr 2017 GARRICK HOUSE FLAT 3 CARRINGTON STREET £885,000
1107 28 Apr 2017 49 FLAT 7 CADOGAN GARDENS £2,850,000
1118 19 Apr 2017 7 - 9 DRAYCOTT PLACE £864,187
1154 28 Apr 2017 CADOGAN COURT FLAT 28 DRAYCOTT AVENUE £3,850,000
1156 20 Apr 2017 131 - 132 FLAT 5 PARK LANE £6,100,000
1197 5 May 2017 SLOANE AVENUE MANSIONS FLAT E8 SLOANE AVENUE £600,000
1214 5 May 2017 CRANMER COURT FLAT 88 WHITEHEADS GROVE £1,350,000
1215 28 Apr 2017 2 EATON TERRACE £4,520,000
1229 25 Apr 2017 CROWN LODGE, 12 FLAT 52 ELYSTAN STREET £1,550,000
1256 8 May 2017 142 - 148 FLAT 4 EBURY STREET £700,000
1279 26 Apr 2017 13 SPRIMONT PLACE £2,000,000
1303 3 May 2017 40 FLAT 3 LOWER SLOANE STREET £2,450,000
1306 28 Apr 2017 CUMBERLAND COURT FLAT 35 GREAT CUMBERLAND PLACE £272,545
1388 1 May 2017 PARLIAMENT HOUSE, 36 NORTH ROW £186,000
1428 25 Apr 2017 DUKE STREET MANSIONS, 60 FLAT 13 DUKE STREET £1,900,000
1455 20 Apr 2017 28 6 SLOANE COURT EAST £970,000
1456 3 May 2017 17 PORTSEA PLACE £78,300
1482 10 May 2017 PORTSEA HALL FLAT 22 PORTSEA PLACE £1,800,000
1525 28 Apr 2017 PARK WEST FLAT 399 EDGWARE ROAD £280,000
1595 19 Apr 2017 CUMBERLAND MANSIONS 29 BROWN STREET £2,300,000
Recent sales used to determine the average price in the local areas
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
6576 21 May 2020 53 EASTBURY GROVE £450,000
Other information on this house

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