The Algorithm
The Local Sales Pricing Model takes the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period when a house was purchased.
And then compares that with the geometric average of the 50 nearest sales for the last 4 weeks for where we have completed sales figures.
The percentage difference in average prices is then applied to the original purchase price of the property to generate a current estimated price.
The Calculations
Purchase Date 14 Jul 1999
Geometric average (or mean) price of the nearest 50 properties sold within 4 weeks of this property.
The geometric average is used to reduce the impact of outliers in the sales price data.
£59,277
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in the same time period 3555
Latest Purchase Price Data Date 29 Sep 2020
Geometric average price of the nearest 50 properties sold between 1 Sep 2020 and 29 Sep 2020 £118,933
Furthest distance in meters we had to look to find 50 sales in this time period 9501
Difference in meters between the search areas to find 50 sales.
This calculation should help you decide if the model is providing a useful estimate. If the differences in search areas is large, then the model is less likely to be giving a useful estimate.
5946
Percentage difference in the average house prices. 100.639 %
Gain in house value £160,972
Estimated house price.
Remember this is just a model using changes in average house prices in the local area. For an accurate valuation always consult a professional valuer, or estate agent.
£320,922
The Pros and Cons

Based on actual sales data

The model is based upon actual completed sales figures.
Other models, for example the Halifax House Price Index are based on approved mortgage applications rather than completed sales.
Although mortgage approvals give a more timely index, not every approval leads to a completed sale.
Additionally within some districts many properties are purchased mortgage free by foreign nationals, this skews the Halifax and Nationwide House Price Indexes.

Model lags current market

The model's estimates lag behind the current market because it is based upon completed sales.
A typical house transaction takes around 8 weeks to complete, this creates a lag from the date the price is agreed to the date the transaction is recorded.
Therefore, on a rising market this model will underestimate the house price and on a falling market this model will overestimate the price.

Model doesn't adjust for home improvements

This is an algorithmic model which is based purely on changes to average house prices in the immediate area.
The model doesn't factor in any improvements made to the specific property.
This aspect of the model is not as bigger weakness as expected.
On average most homes get brought, get extended and improved, and then get sold in a seven year period.
Therefor the sample which we draw the averages from also contains houses which have had home improvements.
We always recommend that you use a professional valuer, or estate agent to get an accurate valuation.

Averages are not always comparable

The model finds the 50 nearest sales within a 4 week period to determine the average prices.
If the search area for the 50 nearest sales is very different for the two averages then the mix of types of houses used for the calculations is likely to be different.
So if the search area is very different then the model is not likely to give a useful estimate.

Ignores postcode boundaries

Postcode snobbery often impacts house prices in the UK.
Prices in one postcode can appreciate while houses in the next postcode stagnate.
This model doesn't consider the postcode when selecting the sample used to generate the average prices.
This can be viewed as both a positive and negative aspect of this model.
Sales used to determine the average price when the house was purchased on 14 Jul 1999
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
0 14 Jul 1999 2 BROOK MEWS £159,950
131 9 Jul 1999 34 BROOK CROFT £120,000
131 23 Jul 1999 32 BROOK CROFT £153,000
190 23 Jul 1999 2 LODGE FARM CLOSE £52,000
308 8 Jul 1999 33 WILBERFORCE ROAD £44,000
414 12 Jul 1999 57 QUARRY LANE £135,000
446 8 Jul 1999 65 RYTON ROAD £74,000
545 23 Jul 1999 6 BEGONIA CLOSE £65,000
608 9 Jul 1999 54 WEST BANK DRIVE £94,000
672 23 Jul 1999 4 SANCTUARY FIELDS £58,750
689 2 Jul 1999 2A HIGH STREET £122,500
689 2 Jul 1999 7 SUNNYSIDE CLOSE £36,000
826 2 Jul 1999 25 WELLINGTON AVENUE £49,000
857 9 Jul 1999 26 WOODSETTS ROAD £87,000
935 30 Jun 1999 19 LOCKWOOD AVENUE £59,500
949 23 Jul 1999 19 ROCHESTER ROAD £45,000
985 16 Jul 1999 36 EDINBURGH DRIVE £31,500
985 2 Jul 1999 52 EDINBURGH DRIVE £73,500
1002 9 Jul 1999 10 WINDSOR WALK £50,000
1034 9 Jul 1999 19 GRASMERE CLOSE £41,750
1098 9 Jul 1999 6 ELDER AVENUE £49,000
1172 2 Jul 1999 41 DEVONSHIRE DRIVE £48,750
1258 26 Jul 1999 17 CALDBECK PLACE £48,500
1296 9 Jul 1999 6 NEWCASTLE CLOSE £43,000
1420 14 Jul 1999 8 BORROWDALE CRESCENT £68,000
1420 14 Jul 1999 8 BORROWDALE CRESCENT £68,000
1480 23 Jul 1999 197 NURSERY ROAD £32,000
1749 26 Jul 1999 34 WHITEHEAD CLOSE £64,500
1765 16 Jul 1999 12 TROON WALK £42,000
1795 9 Jul 1999 HOLMEFIELD DOG KENNEL HILL £105,000
1796 9 Jul 1999 58 CHURCH LANE £72,000
1837 30 Jun 1999 37 RECTORY GARDENS £105,000
1837 9 Jul 1999 25 RECTORY GARDENS £143,000
1837 30 Jun 1999 27 RECTORY GARDENS £109,000
1841 16 Jul 1999 4 MOORTOWN AVENUE £69,000
1853 23 Jul 1999 6 BIRKDALE AVENUE £39,950
1854 19 Jul 1999 31B BIRKDALE AVENUE £52,950
2019 20 Jul 1999 72 LIDGETT LANE £70,020
2142 5 Jul 1999 103 THE MEADOWS £133,000
2165 13 Jul 1999 20 PARK LANE £36,500
2282 26 Jul 1999 14 SHAKESPEARE DRIVE £27,000
2339 26 Jul 1999 40 SILVERDALES £21,000
2652 30 Jun 1999 59 BRECK LANE £85,000
2881 30 Jun 1999 10 ST LEGER WAY £42,000
2938 23 Jul 1999 6 HUNTERS GREEN £36,000
2955 2 Jul 1999 42 HUNTERS WAY £33,000
2955 2 Jul 1999 2 HUNTERS WAY £35,000
3437 23 Jul 1999 64 ST JOHNS ROAD £34,500
3530 9 Jul 1999 57 ST JOHNS ROAD £44,950
3603 16 Jul 1999 54 COMMON ROAD £107,500
Recent sales used to determine the average price in the local areas
Distance (meters) Date Address Price Paid
8378 14 Sep 2020 13 OVEREND ROAD £115,000
9501 4 Sep 2020 28 SPA LANE £123,000
Other information on this house

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